Traffic planners will have to accommodate the increasing Hurricane Katrina demonstrated the type of extensive damage traffic planners will face in a changing climate
Climate change will pose global and local challenges and that includes risks to the transportation infrastructure.
Climate change adaptation and resiliency has captured the attention of the transportation community for some time now. Because transportation infrastructure is often designed to last for 30, 50, or 100 years or even longer, transportation professionals are concerned not only about the impact on our existing investments, but also how to design more durable transportation systems for the future.
While climate scientists had conducted extensive research on climate change previously, it was in 1999 that the US Department of Transportation (DOT) established the Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting to address issues of transportation related emissions to the atmosphere. By 2007, the transportation community began to consider the impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure more broadly, reflected in the release of the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Special Report 290 titled ‘Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation’. The report brought together a series of research papers along with the First study to examine the likely impacts of extreme weather events on the US Gulf Coast Region’s multimodal transportation network.
By 2011, it became the official policy of the US DOT to “…integrate considerations of climate change impacts and adaptation into the planning, operations, policies and programs…” of the Department’s various modal Divisions. The focus on climate change adaptation among transportation professionals has become so pervasive, that a complete tract was devoted to the topic at the latest TRB sponsored conference on asset management.
In response, there is now a growing body of research for transportation professionals. The US Federal Highway Administration has published several studies to identify best practices among State Departments of Transportation in preparing for climate change disruptions. The reports outlined suggested methodologies that transportation professionals can use in their planning processes (see for example: ‘Applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for Transportation and Climate Change 2011’).
Similarly in California,5673 Cambridge Systematics authored a guide1 to help metropolitan planners and regional transportation agencies build climate change resilience into their transportation planning processes. Defining a five-step process, the guide lays out a comprehensive methodology to assist transportation professionals in calculating and mitigating future impacts. The frameworks these guides provide are similar to the UK’s Highway Agency’s ‘Climate Change Adaptation Strategy’, which all have a similar methodology.
The next step is determining the degree of exposure of transportation assets, and HERE a great deal of effort is often spent ‘downscaling’ global or regional models of climate change effects to the local context. Most transportation professionals rely on local University climate scientists to help determine more precise estimates of SEA level rise, increased precipitation, extreme temperature events and other impacts. These predicted impacts are often overlaid on precise elevation models captured from Lidar, together with slope measurements (to calculate increased landslide potential) and the existing inventory of transportation infrastructure. The current and future condition of the asset helps to determine the vulnerability of those assets to these climate impacts.
As few agencies are able to evaluate the totality of their transportation assets, they need to determine the relative importance or criticality of their assets. The criticality of the asset is often determined by its economic importance and the availability of alternatives. HERE again, GIS-based network models can help assess the relative importance of various assets. These calculations are often driven by qualitative assessments such as tolerances for risk and what the community values.
831 Federal Highway Administration funded five pilot studies, to test their process and methodology, and now has funded 19 Climate Resilience Pilots. Washington DOT was an early leader among State Departments of Transportation and one of the original five pilots. It conducted a year-long study2 to calculate and understand the future vulnerabilities of their transportation networks. Combining a GIS-based inventory of existing transportation facilities with climate research from the University of Washington, Washington DOT also brought together the local transportation engineers with the most detailed knowledge of their local assets. Combining a qualitative and quantitative assessment, the transportation agency modelled the predicted impacts from a variety of climate effects in an effort to assist state planners.
Another of the original five, Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organisation, conducted a series of scenarios to understand the vulnerability of the island - particularly the Honolulu Harbor and surrounding transportation infrastructure.
In response, GIS and mapping specialists50 ESRI has announced an initiative to support the White House’s efforts with three coordinated components. First, ESRI is partnering with 12 large and small communities to develop practical ways to address their most pressing climate resiliency needs using GIS technology. The aim is to help develop a series of applications that can be shared openly so communities around the world can become more resilient to the challenges of climate change.
Secondly, ESRI will host a wealth of governmental data (US and other countries) and make it available to researchers and practitioners to provide the foundation for future development. Citizens and professionals can go online to Discover, contribute and share resources critical to confronting the impacts of climate change. This website will offer a starting point for open data and ideas and over time it will grow and evolve as more scientists, government bodies and citizens contribute. “We felt it was important to establish this collaborative network of individuals and organisations who use GIS to come together to combat the impacts of climate change,” said ESRI president Jack Dangermond.
Thirdly, ESRI recently announced its Climate Resilience App Challenge. Developers can use open data and ESRI apps, maps, services and application program interfaces to create maps and analytical tools that help communities establish and grow more resilient practices. This challenge supports the White House Climate Data Initiative as it inspires developers to focus their efforts on making maps and analytical tools that help communities see, understand and prepare for climate risks.
To extend the reach of these efforts, the company has partnered with a number of other organisations, including the International City/County Management Association, National Association of Counties, National League of Cities, the American Public Works Association and the American Planning Association. These efforts are designed to focus attention on the necessity of better preparing our existing infrastructure for climate resiliency and to better plan future infrastructure. As Dangermond stated, “as governments, businesses, innovators and citizens work toward this common goal, both a knowledge base and real-world tools will be created that people around the globe can use to build more resilient communities.”
Climate change adaptation and resiliency has captured the attention of the transportation community for some time now. Because transportation infrastructure is often designed to last for 30, 50, or 100 years or even longer, transportation professionals are concerned not only about the impact on our existing investments, but also how to design more durable transportation systems for the future.
While climate scientists had conducted extensive research on climate change previously, it was in 1999 that the US Department of Transportation (DOT) established the Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting to address issues of transportation related emissions to the atmosphere. By 2007, the transportation community began to consider the impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure more broadly, reflected in the release of the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Special Report 290 titled ‘Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation’. The report brought together a series of research papers along with the First study to examine the likely impacts of extreme weather events on the US Gulf Coast Region’s multimodal transportation network.
By 2011, it became the official policy of the US DOT to “…integrate considerations of climate change impacts and adaptation into the planning, operations, policies and programs…” of the Department’s various modal Divisions. The focus on climate change adaptation among transportation professionals has become so pervasive, that a complete tract was devoted to the topic at the latest TRB sponsored conference on asset management.
Impacts
Most climate scientists are in agreement that extreme weather events will be more common in the future, although the specific effects will be localised, coupled with a high degree of uncertainty. As a result, climate models have focused on trying to better predict the geographic variation in impacts, and the specific types of impacts most likely to occur. In general, many areas of the globe will likely experience higher temperatures and more frequent heat events, changes in precipitation patterns, declining snowpack and changes in river flows, SEA level rise and more extreme storm activity. Each of these effects will impact transportation infrastructures and those impacts need to be evaluated and become part of the transportation design and planning processes.In response, there is now a growing body of research for transportation professionals. The US Federal Highway Administration has published several studies to identify best practices among State Departments of Transportation in preparing for climate change disruptions. The reports outlined suggested methodologies that transportation professionals can use in their planning processes (see for example: ‘Applications of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for Transportation and Climate Change 2011’).
Similarly in California,
The role of GIS
There is wide consensus that GIS provides the foundation for much of the analytical work in understanding these impacts. A fundamental starting place is capturing the inventory of all existing transportation infrastructure (including ITS assets) and many agencies already have their inventories in a GIS, along with detailed information about the current condition and expected lifecycle of those assets. More problematic are some of the smaller assets that may play a larger role under changing precipitation patterns: culverts, drains and storm sewers.The next step is determining the degree of exposure of transportation assets, and HERE a great deal of effort is often spent ‘downscaling’ global or regional models of climate change effects to the local context. Most transportation professionals rely on local University climate scientists to help determine more precise estimates of SEA level rise, increased precipitation, extreme temperature events and other impacts. These predicted impacts are often overlaid on precise elevation models captured from Lidar, together with slope measurements (to calculate increased landslide potential) and the existing inventory of transportation infrastructure. The current and future condition of the asset helps to determine the vulnerability of those assets to these climate impacts.
As few agencies are able to evaluate the totality of their transportation assets, they need to determine the relative importance or criticality of their assets. The criticality of the asset is often determined by its economic importance and the availability of alternatives. HERE again, GIS-based network models can help assess the relative importance of various assets. These calculations are often driven by qualitative assessments such as tolerances for risk and what the community values.
Pilot Studies
In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, theAnother of the original five, Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organisation, conducted a series of scenarios to understand the vulnerability of the island - particularly the Honolulu Harbor and surrounding transportation infrastructure.
Looking ahead
While a number of studies highlighted impressive GIS-based models, it is clear that much more needs to be done. This March, President Obama unveiled the Climate Data Initiative which is making available a large number of climate-related data sets from the federal government. It is also encouraging private researchers and practitioners to develop a wide range of new applications designed to help combat global climate change and to help communities better adapt to future climate changes. It’s a call to use open government data on climate change risks and impacts in compelling and useful ways that help citizens, businesses and communities make Smart choices in the face of climate change.In response, GIS and mapping specialists
Secondly, ESRI will host a wealth of governmental data (US and other countries) and make it available to researchers and practitioners to provide the foundation for future development. Citizens and professionals can go online to Discover, contribute and share resources critical to confronting the impacts of climate change. This website will offer a starting point for open data and ideas and over time it will grow and evolve as more scientists, government bodies and citizens contribute. “We felt it was important to establish this collaborative network of individuals and organisations who use GIS to come together to combat the impacts of climate change,” said ESRI president Jack Dangermond.
Thirdly, ESRI recently announced its Climate Resilience App Challenge. Developers can use open data and ESRI apps, maps, services and application program interfaces to create maps and analytical tools that help communities establish and grow more resilient practices. This challenge supports the White House Climate Data Initiative as it inspires developers to focus their efforts on making maps and analytical tools that help communities see, understand and prepare for climate risks.
To extend the reach of these efforts, the company has partnered with a number of other organisations, including the International City/County Management Association, National Association of Counties, National League of Cities, the American Public Works Association and the American Planning Association. These efforts are designed to focus attention on the necessity of better preparing our existing infrastructure for climate resiliency and to better plan future infrastructure. As Dangermond stated, “as governments, businesses, innovators and citizens work toward this common goal, both a knowledge base and real-world tools will be created that people around the globe can use to build more resilient communities.”
