The latest report from independent technical consultancy 4263 SBD finds that, despite their huge potential to save lives, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have so far failed to contribute significantly to the drop in road fatalities, due primarily to stubbornly low penetration rates over the last decade.
However, this is poised to change, as costs begin to fall, consumer interest continues to grow, and most importantly, independent vehicle safety assessor EuroNCAP includes some ADAS applications within its star ratings.
The report goes on to say it is easy to assume that this headwind will lead to a blanket increase in market penetration for all types of ADAS; however this may not be the case. There is still some uncertainty in the market, and there is still a lack of common direction and strategy amongst OEMs. For this reason, SBD has developed an ADAS forecast based on three scenarios taking into consideration the various factors that support the growth of different ADAS systems in the market:
• Market-led: In this scenario, it is assumed that the market grows purely based on consumer demand.
• Incentive-led: In this scenario, it is assumed that the market growth is supported either by an information campaign from the EU or included within the EuroNCAP ratings.
• Mandate-led: In this scenario, it is assumed that the market growth is supported by the announcement of legislation for ADAS applications.
Based on the above scenarios, a forecast was developed by analysing current and future system availability across OEMs. The total market for ADAS is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% and reach revenues of €9 billion by 2018.
Buoyed by the inclusion within the proposed6437 Euro NCAP ratings, Lane Departure Warning (LDW) and Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) are expected to grow fastest among all ADAS applications. The market for LDW is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36% and reach 34.8% market penetration by 2018 under the incentive scenario. The revenues of LDW are expected to reach €1.6 billion by 2018.
The availability of AEB-City on low-segment vehicles heralds a change in OEM mind-sets that were traditionally pushing ADAS into higher segment vehicles. The Paris Motor Show was the opportune moment for OEMs to announce their plans on ADAS.994 Volkswagen unveiled the new Golf with Adaptive Cruise Control as standard on higher variants. The Golf also has Lane Keep Assist/Lane Departure Warning and City Emergency Braking (AEB-City) fitted as options. The addition of standard-fit ADAS systems to high variants of the popular Golf model has the potential to significantly grow the market for ADAS in Europe.
The Euro NCAP inclusion of ADAS systems came unexpectedly quickly in Europe and caught many OEMs by surprise. However, we are seeing a significant push amongst OEMs to develop and deploy low-cost ADAS systems across their entire model range over the coming years.
However, this is poised to change, as costs begin to fall, consumer interest continues to grow, and most importantly, independent vehicle safety assessor EuroNCAP includes some ADAS applications within its star ratings.
The report goes on to say it is easy to assume that this headwind will lead to a blanket increase in market penetration for all types of ADAS; however this may not be the case. There is still some uncertainty in the market, and there is still a lack of common direction and strategy amongst OEMs. For this reason, SBD has developed an ADAS forecast based on three scenarios taking into consideration the various factors that support the growth of different ADAS systems in the market:
• Market-led: In this scenario, it is assumed that the market grows purely based on consumer demand.
• Incentive-led: In this scenario, it is assumed that the market growth is supported either by an information campaign from the EU or included within the EuroNCAP ratings.
• Mandate-led: In this scenario, it is assumed that the market growth is supported by the announcement of legislation for ADAS applications.
Based on the above scenarios, a forecast was developed by analysing current and future system availability across OEMs. The total market for ADAS is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% and reach revenues of €9 billion by 2018.
Buoyed by the inclusion within the proposed
The availability of AEB-City on low-segment vehicles heralds a change in OEM mind-sets that were traditionally pushing ADAS into higher segment vehicles. The Paris Motor Show was the opportune moment for OEMs to announce their plans on ADAS.
The Euro NCAP inclusion of ADAS systems came unexpectedly quickly in Europe and caught many OEMs by surprise. However, we are seeing a significant push amongst OEMs to develop and deploy low-cost ADAS systems across their entire model range over the coming years.
